Bitcoin new high set for late 2024, Binance to lose top spot — VanEck


Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high in late 2024 because of a long-feared United States recession and regulatory shifts after the next U.S. presidential election, asset manager VanEck predicts.

On Dec. 8, VanEck made 15 crypto predictions for 2024, including price forecasts, the timing of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) launches, the impact of the Bitcoin halving, and emerging dominant crypto platforms.

VanEck is among several firms, including BlackRock and Fidelity, that are vying for an approved spot Bitcoin ETF, as well as a spot Ethereum ETF.

$2.4 billion to flow into Bitcoin ETFs in Q1

VanEck is confident that the first spot Bitcoin ETFs will be approved in the first quarter of 2024. However, it also had a gloomy prediction for the U.S. economy.

“The US recession will finally arrive, but so will the first spot Bitcoin ETFs,” it stated before predicting that “more than $2.4 billion may flow into these ETFs in Q1 2024 to support Bitcoin’s price.”

The firm also stated that the BTC halving, due in April or May, “will see minimal market disruption,” but there will be a post-halving price rise.

VanEck predicts that Bitcoin will make an all-time high in Q4 2024, “potentially spurred by political events and regulatory shifts following a U.S. presidential election.”

The U.S. presidential elections are scheduled to be held on Nov. 5, 2024.

Ether won’t flip Bitcoin

The firm also said it believes Ether won’t likely flip Bitcoin in 2024 but will still outperform major tech stocks.

“Like past cycles, Bitcoin will lead the market to rally, and the value will flow into smaller tokens just after the halving. ETH won’t begin outperforming Bitcoin until post-halving and may outperform for the year, but there will be no ‘flippening,’” writes VanEck.

Despite this, Ether’s market share will be challenged by other smart contract platforms such as Solana, which has “less uncertainty surrounding their scalability roadmap,” it predicted.

Ethereum is the current industry standard for smart contracts, with a market capitalization of $285 billion. Solana is a rival high-throughput blockchain with a market cap of $30 billion.

However, Ethereum layer-2 networks will capture the majority of Ethereum Virtual Machine-compatible total value locked and trading volume once the EIP-4844 scaling update is implemented, it said.

Decentralization to hurt AI monopolies

Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) also made several predictions in their Big Ideas in Tech for 2024 report released on Dec. 6, though the focus was more on artificial intelligence and decentralization. A16z is one of the industry’s largest venture capital (VC) firms, investing millions of dollars every year in Web3 startups.

The VC firm believes crypto could help move AI out of the grasp of a few tech giants, such as OpenAI, Google and Meta, into the wider Web3 community.

It said that decentralized networks counterbalance centralized AI models, which currently require massive resources only accessible to tech giants.

However, crypto networks can enable permissionless markets where anyone can contribute computing power and data to train large language models, and there will be more of this in 2024.

“With crypto, it becomes possible to create multi-sided, global, permissionless markets where anyone can contribute — and be compensated — for contributing compute or a new dataset to the network.”

VanEck also predicted that Binance would lose the top position as a centralized exchange by trading volume as competitors like Coinbase, OKX, Bybit and Bitget compete for leadership.

Binance has been under regulatory pressure globally, which recently culminated in its former CEO, Changpeng Zhao, a highly influential industry leader, stepping down amid a $4.3 billion settlement with the U.S. Justice Department.

Meanwhile, stablecoin market capitalization will reach $200 billion, Circle’s USD Coin will make a comeback, decentralized exchanges will reach a new peak for spot trading volumes, and Know Your Customer (KYC)-compliant decentralized finance platforms will likely surpass non-KYC ones, it predicted.

“KYC-enabled and walled garden apps like those using Ethereum Attestation Service or Uniswap Hooks will gain significant traction, approaching or even flipping non-KYC applications in user base and fees.“

Source : Cointelegraph by Martin Young / Dec 8, 2023 logo


240 rue Evariste Galois,

06410 Biot,

Sophia Antipolis

Automata Pay

65-66 Warwick House 4th

Floor, Queen Street, London

England, EC4R 1EB

Automata Pay Europe Ltd

3rd Floor Ormond Building,

31-36 Ormond Quay Upper,

Dublin 7, D07 Ee37

Automata ICO Ltd

Italian Branch

Via Archimede, 161,

00197 Roma


The purchase of digital assets is subject to a high market risk and price volatility. Changes in value can be significant and occur rapidly and without warning. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of an investment and returns can fluctuate both up and down, and you may not recover the amount you invested. RISK WARNING

Automata ICO Limited has a branch in Italy with its registered office at Via Archimede, 161, Roma, Italy, and registered in Italy under number 96550860587 with the Organismo Agenti e Mediatori (OAM) as a Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP).

Automata France SAS is a company registered in France with the company number 902 498 617. Automata FRANCE SAS is registered with the french Financial Market Authority, l’Autorité des marchés financiers (“AMF”), as a provider of Virtual Asset Service Provider under number E2023-087.

Automata Pay Europe Limited is a partner of Modulr Finance B.V., a company registered in the Netherlands with company number 81852401, which is authorised and regulated by the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) as an Electronic Money Institution (Firm Reference Number: R182870) for the issuance of electronic money and payment services. Your account and related payment services are provided by Modulr Finance B.V. Your funds will be held in one or more segregated accounts and safeguarded in line with the Financial Supervision Act. How we keep your money safe.