(Invalidated) BTC/USDC - BTC is evolving in trading range with an upside swing expected towards 67 000

Market & Ticker: Bitcoin – BTC/USDC

Date: 09/07/2024

Horizon / Timing:  Tactical Mid-term / 1 to 3 months

Scenario: 

The Bitcoin (BTC) remains stuck within a wide trading range pattern since March 2024. The recent halving of the Bitcoin combined to a significant BTC supply exchanged by some whales such as the German Government since last weeks are adding pressure below 73 000 forming a consolidation pattern with mixed trend following technical elements.

This consolidation is expected to end between Summer 2024 and November 2024 a head of the US election and new regulation frame in Europe (MICA).

The technical picture is bullish for the coming week with a key support area between 48 700 and 53 700 acting as the lower part of the trading range while 60 800 is acting as a confirmation to open the recovery swing move towards 67000 and maximum 73 000 (upper part of the trading range pattern).

Technical Key Elements:

• RSI indicator is in oversold area without divergence
• The Moving average are neutral flattening around 60 800 (Range)
• Fibonacci key resistance area at 67 000 and support at 53 700
• Elliot wave pattern is calling for a range in wave (4) - Consolidation

Trade Idea conclusion: Bullish (recovery)

• Tactical target: 67 000
• Tactical confirmation level: 60 800
• Tactical Pivot support: 48600 / 53700
• Tactical alternative target: 38 400 (= Strategic support)

Chart: Daily Basis (Candle Stick) - Logarithmic 

Indicators: Exponential Moving Average (21/34/89) - RSI (21)

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