FED Rate Hike => 4,5% (cible max 5,1-5,25 %)
‘’The Federal Reserve is worried a tight labor market might fuel high inflation, but it is also betting on the strong demand for labor to keep the economy out of recession Consumer spending is by far the biggest driver of economic growth.’’ - Jerome Powell 2/10
SNP500 - After FED Decision the SNP500 didn't yet confirm the exit from the bear market consolidation started last year but remains above strong key support to remains bullish for the next weeks 3/10
Inflation peak seems to be behind with a significant down trend confirmed on commodities (OIL & GAS) Confirmed by the recent reversal on 10Y Breakeven (St Louis index) 4/10
It means the market is pricing a continuation and stabilisation of the high inflation rate calling for a 5,25% Fed Rate cap, this rate could stay between 4% and 5,25 during 2023 waiting for slow inflation normalisation (with a target at 2% for inflation) 5/10
In a context of strong consumer spending capability in US and stabilisation of the inflation, the risk of a major collapse on Risky asset class seems reduced - Reinforced by the global macro picture calling for a further #USD #Weakness and pause in the uptrend on US10Y Yield 6/9
US10Y Yield - Pause expected in the previous up trend with a target at 2,85% 8/10
However the FED comments are more leaning towards a pain full range price action instead of of ‘’V’’ Recovery as experienced during the COVID pandemy because of the lack of ‘’Helicopter Money’’ = Quantative easing with low FED Rate to ease the liquidity into the economy. 9/10
BITCOIN
in this global context leads by a lack of quantative easing from US it seems difficult to see a strong and fast recovery for now, a trading range is more likely with 22650 a key resistance in parallel 4510 SNP500 10/10
